Lone Gold Ranking System
History
After watching Boise State defeat Oklahoma 43-42 in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, Aaron Phillips had taken issue with how the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) ranked their teams. During that time, he tried to find some workable solutions. In 2011, he came up with a solution: “The Phillips Method".
The Phillips Method used the same model as the BCS (3 in 1 rankings), but with a different template. Instead of using polls and complicated computer scores, the Phillips Method used the stats in the box score to determine the rankings. Here is a summary of how our ranking system worked initially.
Game Differential Standings (GDS):
The first thing people notice in the stat line is the score. Since the score is a result, the application in this ranking followed suit. What we did was awarded bonus points to the winning team. Then, we added the point differential in hopes of eliminating ties.
Our idea was simple, the tougher the game, the higher the bonus points were. Teams were also awarded additional points for winning postseason games and the league championship. If the league recognized ties, then the bonus points were halved. In the event of a tie in overall points, the team's position in the GPR broke the tie.
Game Management Percentage (GMP):
As we all know, a result is produced whenever the process is completed. Unlike the GDS, the GMP focused more on the process of the game. We looked at the box score and focused on 7 key stats that made the difference. The first six stats were awarded 50 points plus the difference for the team that won that specific battle. The 7th stat was what we called the "X-Factor" stat. That stat would not have differential added to the bonus.
Like the GDS, we would be awarded bonus points to the team that won the game. Plus, the site of the game would also be factored into the equation. However, the points were applied as a process, and GMP would be calculated as a percentage.
Group Percentile Rankings (GPR):
The GPR was ranked in the traditional sense with a twist. Our focus in that ranking was comparing statistical averages (same stat line as GMP) with those teams of a certain winning percentage. We would rank those averages top to bottom and tally up the points accordingly. The teams that were within a 10% group were then awarded the position based on those points.
If there was a tie, we would rely on strength of schedule, strength of conference/division, RPI (Rating Percentage Index), until the position can be established.
Final Assessment:
After the positions in the GDS, GMP, and GPR were settled, the team's ranking points would be tallied from those rankings top to bottom. In the event of a tie between two teams, that team had to have higher point position in 2 out of the 3 rankings. With three or more teams (if 2/3 cannot be established), the GPR broke the tie.
During the 2011-12 college football season, Phillips tested his method on the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams and was successful. Then he tried his new method back when the BCS started in 1998. After further testing, Phillips came to the conclusion that the BCS did not fairly rank FBS teams. He presented those findings by producing a 16 part YouTube series "Phillips Method vs BCS" in 2013.
By the time the new FBS postseason format was put into place, the new ranking system would begin it's evolution.It all began with renaming the Phillips Method to the Lone Gold Ranking System in February 2014. In that time, the fan vote would also included to help increase engagement. By August of the same year, Lone Gold expanded the ranking system to include weekly assessments of the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) and National Football League (NFL) teams.
At the start of the 2016-17 season, Lone Gold expanded the ranking system to include Division I NCAA Baseball, Men’s Hockey, Men’s and Women’s Basketball, the National Hockey League (NHL), National Basketball Association (NBA), Major League Baseball (MLB), and the Women’s National Basketball Association (WNBA).
While the Lone Gold Ranking System proved to be a success initially, supporters eventually felt that the system was becoming inefficient. Even though the system worked as designed, the maintenance became was becoming increasingly more time consuming. On top of that, the focus on the stat lines made it hard to prove the effectiveness of the system.After much deliberation, Phillips agreed and decided to overhaul the ranking system. In September 2019, Lone Gold would suspend the rankings indefinitely until the new and improved system could be proven effective.
Evolution and Project 13
The official decision to use the Lone Gold Ranking System in it's current form came two weeks before Christmas of 2019. Phillips decided to eliminate the fan vote and GPR from the rankings. He kept the GDS in tact and repurposed the GMP. The GMP would no longer be used in percentage form, and instead used site and winning percentage points, thus eliminating the box score stats in the process. Plus, the old GMP would have the application as the GDS. As a result, the old GDS and GMP rankings would become the new aggregate point totals. But that would only be half of the new, official Lone Gold Ranking System.
One of the main criticisms that the supporters of Lone Gold made was that the old ranking system did not factor momentum and length of the game. In other words, whether a team was on a winning/losing streak and if the game ended in regulation or overtime. So, in order to incorporate the critical input within the traditional concept, Phillips would include win streaks and regulation wins into the new assessment. He also included the team's postseason success.
With all the new pieces in place the new, official Lone Gold Ranking System was put into place. On January 2, 2020, the new Lone Gold Ranking System would be put into practice. With the successful implementation of the new and improved system, Lone Gold hoped to resume ranking teams by September. But on March 12, the COVID-19 pandemic put the sports world on hold.
During that 4 month stretch, Phillips decided not to let this new creation go to waste. So to pass the time, Project 13 would come into existence. Thanks in part to the work on the new project and the pandemic, Lone Gold would postpone the official rankings until the following year. Project 13 is named after the year that Lone Gold Sports was founded as a website.
The initial idea was to go back into the 11 sports leagues that Lone Gold follows and apply the new aggregate system of each season from 2013 to present. Once that part of the application was completed, it was decided to add other potential assessments to the mix.
Current Assessments
Here are just some of the assessments and key terms that Lone Gold uses to determine the success of a team during the course of a season. We apply these rankings on all the teams that we follow during the course of the season (includes postseason).
Aggregate Points:
This is a two step process that Lone Gold uses to determine point value. Basically, if a team wins the game, then the point differential is added to both steps. After that, we add the appropriate bonus points to both the record and the site of the game.
The first step is the record of the completed game. If the team won over another team that has a winning percentage over .500, then 100 points will be added. Otherwise, the point value will be 50. However, if the team that was defeated was a lower level team, the bonus points will always be 25.After that, we assess the site of the game. If the team won at home and it was over another team that is at or below .500, it is 300 points. A road win at that same level is worth 350 points and a neutral site win equals 450. If that was above .500, then just add 50 points. As usual, ties will halve the bonus points based how well the teams have done at that point of the season. The scoring will continue into the postseason.
Anytime a team wins their conference/division title, then 500 points will be added. Postseason wins equal 1000 points per game and winning the league championship will add 2500 points to the score. In the event of a tie in the score, the points will be halved based on their position.LG
Ranking System:
Our official ranking system that we post on a weekly basis. We do use this system on a daily basis, but it doesn't become official until the week is completed. Here is how it works. 5 points are awarded to both teams for every game played. If the team won the game in regulation it is worth another 5 points. However, if they won in overtime it is worth an additional 3 points. In the event that a league counts ties, the participating teams will receive 2 points. Next, we will look at momentum.
When a team wins every 5th game in succession, the team will be awarded extra points based on that accomplishment. If the team wins 5 games in a row, it is worth 250 points. A 10 game streak is worth 100 points, 15 consecutive games equals 225 points, and a 20 game win streak goes for 500 points. The only way a team can receive 500 points after a 20 game win streak is to win 5 games in succession. Once the streak ends, everything starts over again. Now, we focus our attention on the season accomplishments.The postseason scoring is exactly similar to the aggregate points scoring. But if a team improves their winning percentage from the previous season, they will receive 250 points. During the course of the entire season, we add in the aggregate points to assist us with tie breaking procedures.
LG Price Valuation:
As a sports fan, you might wonder if the team you are rooting for is worth the financial risk. In this assessment, we determine the team's "sweat equity", the Lone Gold way. What we measure is the ranking position of each team in 4 categories. These categories include games played, wins, points scored, and the aggregate score. The idea of this assessment is to see the true value of each point scored in all of our assessments.
